That people maintain a reasonable doubt about information is healthy as long as the doubt leads them to seek the truth and resolve the question. But all of the truth about oil is often concealed. Unfounded claims of major discoveries abound.
Common Misconceptions About U.S. Oil Reserves
The most popular rumors about American oil reserves are simple — the U.S. has much more oil than is commonly known. One alleged source is the Bakken oil reserve in North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, and parts of southern Canada.
Oil has been recovered from the Bakken since 1951, but it has yet to produce anything close to some of the hype. The Bakken is described variously in articles with sensational headings — “Saudi Arabia of oil,” “How N. Dakota Became Saudi Arabia,” “The Hottest Oil Play Going in North America,” — the Bakken has attracted much attention.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) released an optimistic estimate in April 2008 that the Bakken Field held as much as 4.3 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Other reputable energy sites generally agree with these figures, although some reflect an understandable optimism that new drilling techniques might increase the yield. Hundreds of North Dakota wells are increasing oil production from the Bakken and have reached 300 thousand barrels daily according the Energy Information Agency.
The Peak Oil Myth
The idea that the world has reached peak oil production is a common source of controversy. The total world consumption is approaching 90 billion barrels a year. Estimates of the world’s proven oil reserves vary, but the U.S. seems almost certainly to have peaked in the '90s, as production has dropped significantly, and the U.S. now imports about one-half of its oil.
World oil consumption continues to increase, quadrupling from 1960 to 2004. These numbers do not bode well for continually increasing oil worldwide production. The good news is that U.S. consumption has dropped slightly for the past two years.
An internet search for “peak oil” produces a myriad of opinions and contentious, often poorly documented responses. Denial of peak oil is rampant. There is a real issue with providing enough oil.
Why the Confusion About Oil?
There are large numbers of people who distrust, for better or worse, government, large companies, and statistics. Some is a healthy suspension of judgment which awaits more information.
Regrettably, much of the rhetoric is politically inspired even though presidents of both parties have tried for decades past to develop energy policies to make the country more energy independent. Success has been slow.
Clearly much of the confusion is an innocent repetition of erroneous information. Typically, people don’t spend a great deal of time verifying statements especially when the amount of data available requires lots of time and effort to assimilate.
Confusion increases when the business sector promotes opportunities in the oil industry. In honest — or not — attempts to promote investment opportunities the best face is presented. That face may well have had a makeover that belies the whole story, yet may be accepted as totally objective truth.
Oil Nomenclature and Numbers Are Confusing
Trying to find accurate, dependable information regarding oil production and consumption is difficult. Some sources have dozens of pages, charts, and tables. But some use gallons, some, barrels, some, BTUs, etc. There seems to be an almost endless way to organize the facts. Some sources make claims with no effort to substantiate information.
People unacquainted with oil production figures can be misled by large numbers. A billion barrels may sound like a lot of oil, but 19 billion are used in the U.S. alone every day.
Another problem lies in interpreting estimates, which vary depending on the source. The amount of oil in the ground does not represent the amount of oil that can be recovered. Much of the oil in old fields is still in the ground because it remains trapped in rock formations and is not recoverable with known technology.
Add to those problems the lack of understanding many people have about the limitations on the powers of the president and congress and the complex nature of foreign relations, and one can begin to understand the confusion. The U.S. government is not empowered to exert much control on an industry that is mostly located in other nations.
What is Really Known About Oil Production and Consumption
There can be little doubt that statistics will change as exploration continues. More oil will be discovered, but who knows how much? Oil is being used at an exponentially increasing rate worldwide. Since oil exists in finite amounts it will run out eventually and possibly much sooner than many think.
If current projections about world reserves are correct, problems are inevitable and they will become serious long before the last drop of oil is used.
Alternative energy resources are being developed that can reduce the world dependence on oil, but cultures will have to adjust and landscapes will change as wind power and solar power occupy many large portions of the earth.
Citizens must understand the complicated topic of world oil in order to take the right steps in a potential crisis. One can hope that supplies will be found, but plans must spring from what we know. The data points to problems of a serious nature in this century. Denial may reduce the stress, but being armed with information will help prepare America for a future that will require adjustments to lifestyles.
Sources
- “Country Comparison,” Central Intelligence Agency, Apr 10, 2007. (Accessed October 19, 2011)
- “U.S. Energy Facts Explained,” U.S. Energy Information Agency, September 1, 2010. (Accessed October 19, 2011)
- “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, U.S. Department of Energy, February 2005. (Accessed October 20, 2011)“
- "The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful,” Jason Schwarz, June 22, 2008. (Accessed October 20, 2011)
Harvey Craft - I am a retired educator with diverse experience. I read anything science, education, and history. I write to share what I learn.
